Has the vegan bubble burst? As vegan meat companies see sales falling, does this really spell the end of plant-based sector?

A slew of recent headlines have decried the failure of vegan meat companies to hold onto customers, noting that some brands are going into administration, as sales are falling in the plant-based meat market.

The removal of certain plant-based products from the UK marketplace, for example, Oatly’s ice-cream tubs, which were withdrawn earlier this year after being launched in 2019 has led to headlines asking whether the vegan bubble has burst.

Meatless Farm was a victim of falling sales, and facing administration until vegan chicken brand VFC swooped in and bought the product range earlier this year.

And anecdotally, chatter in online vegan groups suggests that while dining out in high street chains like Pret A Manger (which recently converted most of its Veggie Pret stores back to standard outlets) it has become harder to find options.

Some have branded the abundance of plant-based products a ‘fad’, with Celia Walden writing in The Telegraph that: “We all know a fad when we see one and it doesn’t take a financial whizz to tell you that if the UK vegan population is estimated to be 1-2 per cent, then labelling nearly a quarter of all food products launched in 2019 as vegan – as one analysis found – may perhaps be overkill.”

So is veganism on the decline?

The answer is… not necessarily. The number of people identifying as vegan certainly hasn’t dropped since a 2019 poll by the Vegan Society, according to a 2023 report by YouGov, both of which put the figure at around two per cent of the population (600,000).

And the desire for meat-free food even among meat-eaters, or the growing cohort of people who describe themselves as flexitarians, is still strong according to an NIQ report, which put that figure at a respectable 38 per cent of the UK population.

The main problem standing in the way, according to analysts, is cost.

The NIQ report, titled Flexitarianism: from niche to mainstream‘, found that 14.3 per cent (4.1million) UK households in 2023 consume a vegan, vegetarian, pescatarian or flexitarian diet.

However, it continues, plant-based alternatives still cost more than their traditional meat and dairy counterparts, at a time where shoppers are more sensitive to pricing amid a cost of living crisis.

But as the data showed, with more than a third (38 per cent) of consumers wanting to consume meat-free alternatives, interest in veggie and vegan diet remains.

Is the plant-based meat market struggling due to cost?

According to Katrina Bishop, UK thought leadership activation manager at NIQ: “UK consumers are being faced with challenging economic pressures, and price is an important factor dissuading flexible eaters from buying into meat and dairy alternatives, in the current climate.

“This is reflected in the impact Veganuary had in driving new interest this year, with retailer focus being more on overall price messaging, which impacted sales during this period.”

Looking to Veganuary suggests interest in veganism is not on the wane, with this year seeing a record number of sign-ups, with 700,000 people taking part globally. And, as the charity points out, this number only includes official sign-ups – YouGov polling suggested that up to four per cent of the UK population took on the challenge.

And yet despite the biggest cohort yet, the NIQ report still points to most dairy and meat alternative categories seeing a decline in sales when compared to the previous year.

A further useful metric may be the number of Veganuary participants who then make a permanent change to their diet, with the organisation’s International Head of Communications, Toni Vernelli, saying: “Veganuary is so much more than a one-month pledge as taking part leads to lasting diet change for most participants.

“With 78 per cent of our 2023 participants planning to at least halve their intake of animal products permanently – including 25 per cent who plan to stay fully vegan, Veganuary really is driving positive change for animals, people and the planet.” 

Looking to the young generation

Furthermore, when looking to the growth of the plant-based movement in the future, it is worth noting that it is younger people who have shown the most interest in moving towards meat-free diets, whether for animal rights or the environment.

According to a 2022 report released by the Credit Suisse Research Institute (CSRI), the younger generation ‘has taken climate considerations far more seriously than generations before, understanding and championing the path forward for change’.

When it comes specifically to diet, the report said: “Young consumers show a strong desire to switch to a more sustainable diet, particularly focused on cutting consumption of fast food and meat. 

“The growth outlook for alternative food looks solid, with 66 per cent of consumers surveyed intending to increase the purchase of plant-based meat and dairy products. In addition, almost 40 per cent of respondents with concerns about the environment already want to try cultivated meat.”

‘The world needs these products’

So is the vegan bubble bursting? While declining and stagnating sales of certain meat and dairy alternatives could suggest that, they in themselves not complete as a metric.

The economic context of these sales, alongside the price point of alternative products being higher than their traditional counterparts, suggests this metric needs to be considered with a pinch of salt – and that it cannot alone form the basis of a cogent argument that says veganism is on the decline.

And even the plant-based meat market itself should not yet be written off yet. For a start, it is widely acknowledged that new products often go through a life cycle, which will see initial excitement and boom followed by pushback and trials, before the manufacturer will reach an equilibrium.

As one anonymous industry veteran told Food Navigator: “History shows that food substitutes evolve and gain share over time; we aren’t done with plant-based burgers yet.”

Even more tellingly, another said: “The world needs these products.”

Featured photo © Christopher Furlong / Staff via Getty Images